America as No.3: Get Real about China, India and the Rest” by Hugh Peyman delves into the changing landscape of global power, explicitly focusing on the rising economic influence of China and India. The author forecasts that by the mid-century, China’s economy will be 70% larger than that of the U.S. At the same time, India will surpass it, positioning America as the third-largest economy globally. According to Peyman, this shift underscores the critical importance of economic power over military strength in determining global influence.
Peyman discusses three significant challenges facing the West: economic, demographic, and competence shocks. The financial challenge comes from the rapid growth of non-Western economies. Demographically, 90% of the world’s population will soon be non-Western, which demands greater inclusion in global decision-making processes. Competence-wise, recent events such as the COVID-19 pandemic and the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan have raised doubts about the West’s ability to manage international affairs effectively.
The book advocates for a strategic realignment in Western policies, urging leaders to heed the insights of economists and business professionals who understand China and India. Peyman references the historical precedent of military historian Paul Kennedy, who argued that military strength is deeply intertwined with economic power and technological progress. He suggests that the West should not view the rise of these Asian giants as a threat but rather as an opportunity for strategic cooperation.
One of the key proposals in the book is for a new grand bargain between the U.S. and China, akin to the Nixon-Mao rapprochement of the 1970s. Peyman envisions this to manage global tensions and foster mutual benefits. He draws on Yin and Yang, suggesting that opposites can support each other to create a balanced and sustainable international order.
Peyman’s work is a call to action for Western leaders to “get real” about the emerging global order. By understanding and adapting to these shifts, the West can mitigate existential threats such as environmental challenges and the risk of nuclear conflict. The book emphasizes the necessity of strategic diplomacy and economic collaboration in navigating the complexities of the 21st-century global landscape.
